Understanding the Inflation Schedule
The Inflation Schedule is the rigid formula that dictates the exact volume of new SOL tokens minted annually on the Solana network. When inflation officially commenced in 2021, the initial emission rate was set at 8% per year. Since then, this rate has decreased by 15% annually, a mechanism known as disinflation. This decline will continue until it reaches a hard bottom, or terminal rate, of 1.5%. Currently in 2026, the inflation rate is approximately 3.8%, with projections indicating that the network will hit the terminal 1.5% rate between 2031 and 2032.
Think of the inflation schedule like a bathtub with a faucet: on day one, the water is gushing out at full force; but, each year, the flow drops 15% until only a mere drip persists. While the bathtub is always filling with new water, the rate at which it fills is declining along a schedule that is publicly visible and unchanging. Nobody meets in a room to decide on next year's inflation rate; it's programmed into the activation and runs itself on autopilot.
Deciphering How Emissions Operate
All newly minted SOL is distributed to stakers as rewards. These rewards are distributed to each epoch (two days) relative to the amount of active stake, less the validator commission. Emissions are the reason you see 6-8% when staking with Phantom or when you hold Marinade's mSOL or JitoSOL.
This process of distribution facilitates an indirect transfer between stakers and non-stakers. About two-thirds of all SOL in circulation is staked. Consequently, stakers receive emissions that offset and, usually outpace, inflation dilution for that group. However, non-stakers dilution is the full amount. If you own 100 SOL, which amounts to ~$8,000 when priced at ~$80 per SOL, and leave it unstaked for one year while inflation sits at approximately 3.8% you dilute your slice of the network. In contrast, stake 100 SOL and the rewards flip the dilution equation in your favor. So, Solana inflation is less of a universal tax and more of a tax for sitting out.
Validators deduct a commission on the way. Usually 0-10% of the reward comes off the top prior to your reward, which is the reason why staking yields as reported are lower than the underlying emissions rate. Tools like Solana Compass let you compare staking yield vs the underlying emissions rate.
Benchmarking Solana's Emissions vs ETH and BTC
Ether issues a lot less. Ethers issuance is closer to 0.5-1%. And, the burn as a part of EIP-1559 occasionally causes net-deflation. The amount is also not as linear and instead depends on active validators. The other extreme is BTC. 21M supply maximum. Half every four years. The rate is not linear, and not adjustable, it just goes up. Solana is in between: more than Ethereum, and less than BTC. If you know your supply curve in 2029, Solana does, but ETH does not.
Scenarios for Potential Adjustments
The curve isn't immutable, just locked in. SIMD-0228, the proposal to move to market-based emissions as the inflation schedule, was up for governance for validators in March, 2025. The proposal was rejected. The system can say No. This is currently SIMD-0550 in 2026. This proposal would increase the disinflation rate to 30% and save ~$1.5B, pushing the 1.5% terminal rate to the first half of 2029.
Here are the practical stakes. If this goes through, then stakers earn at lower rates sooner which impacts stakers, mSOL, JitoSOL, and all of the strategies built on top of them. Validators, running thin margins anyway, will be affected. This might affect infrastructure. There are a few teams, like Helius, publishing easy to understand explanations of any of the major changes. This is a worth a read before you have to re-evaluate your strategy. If SIMD-0550 goes to governance, your earnings do not magically vanish. The curve does not change for you, it changes for everybody else. The curve just gets steeper. If you delegated 500 SOL (~$40,000 at ~$80/SOL) expecting ~7% yields in the years, and SIMD-0550 passes, your rewards won't disappear, you will just earn less. Everything does not have to break, the assumptions behind your strategy do.
A caveat: "stakers get protected from dilution" is in SOL terms. It doesn't do anything about price risk and governance can change the curve, mid-cycle. So, take the terminal rate to 2031-32 as a default but not a promise.
